How's The Las Vegas Real Estate Market?

If somebody was to say to you that the Las Vegas Real Estate market’s great, everything’s great, I’m great….you’d probably ask them to share whatever they were smoking.  

What we responsible Vegas Realtors have learned (or hopefully have learned) is that the public is not ignorant.  They read the papers, they watch the news, and they know what’s going on.  So how do we answer the apprehensive buyer or seller?  How do we show them that despite the turmoil in the Las Vegas market they should buy or sell their home right now?

Last week, I was fortunate enough to attend a seminar here in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Hotel hosted  Realtor.com.  The speaker provided a great answer that neither tries to trick anyone into thinking the Vegas market is anything other than what it is, nor does it portray us as a pack of lunatics taking a ride on the happy train… “You’re right, the market has changed…I’ve had to totally change the way I market real estate.  But (with a huge smile and a good nod of your head), I’ve never seen a more opportunistic market here in Southern Nevada!  There are great opportunities for both buyers and sellers that have never existed before.”

So, smarty-pants, what the heck are the “great opportunities” for sellers here in Las Vegas - (since that’s the tougher sell) – the speaker brought up a good point.  If you’ve got a seller whose house is paid off (or almost) and they’re looking to sell, take some of their money and get out of dodge…would it be better for them to sell now or later?  Now we know home prices are down - according to SalesTraque the median price for an existing homes in Las Vegas fell 4.8% from July to August…ummmm, anyone want to hazard a guess what will happen next month? (I’ll give you a hint…in January the Median price was $239,000 and in August it was $200,000) With the average days on market at just about 60, don’t you think Mr. and Mrs. Almost Retiree would want to get on the stick about selling their house sooner rather than later?  Wouldn’t you be remiss in your fiduciary duty not to at least suggest the scenario?  The presenter from  realtor.com packages it as “an opportunity to preserve the equity they have left.” So there.

Okay, on to the more obvious “great opportunities” for the buyers here in Southern Nevada – really, I need to say it?  Okay, how many months of inventory indicate a “normal” market?  You get a cookie, you’re right – 6 months of inventory.  How many months of inventory do we have here now in Las Vegas…anyone…a bit over 7 (which is something we haven’t seen in a long while) What does that say?  The houses are moving.  This month, for the eighth straight month in a row, home sales are up.  Again, the average days on market is just over 60…people are buying.  Interest rates are still low. 

Okay, just so you realize that I haven’t been sneaking out back having a little of that wacky ‘tabacky – yes, I know the buyers have to meet some tighter credit guidelines, but that’s been the case for more than a few months now and we’ve still been up in existing home closings month-over-month and year-over-year from 2007…that doesn’t seem to be stopping anyone.  Okay, what about the down payment assistance going away? People will still buy houses.  If the average price of an existing home in Las Vegas has gone down every month since February of 2007, my bet is it will go down a little further, but if it were to stay at $200,000 like it was this month – how much would they have to come in with (keeping in mind that most sellers in Las Vegas realize that they’re going to have to be able to give into paying all or part of the buyer’s closings costs) - $6,000 - $7,000?  Even I was able to come up with that when I bought my house…it’s not an insurmountable amount of money once someone decides that it’s a better investment and use of their money to purchase versus renting.

What about investors?  Despite how you feel about them they keep coming and we still need them.  Not the kind that thinks just because they bought a house in Las Vegas they’re a Real Estate Mogul, but the kind who have the money to come in, pick-up up a property at $90 - $140 per sq. foot (c’mon, really, you can buy a single-family property for $90 a sq. foot in Las Vegas?  Sure, go to www.buyvegashouses.com, click on the search button and put in a max price of about $198,000 and see what pops up), and hold onto it for a while and not try to be a star of  Flip my House (it kind of makes you think of that old joke…take my wife, please!)

The investors are coming in and realizing that even though people will continue to be able to buy houses, there are still people pouring into Las Vegas everyday that are going to have to rent until they can buy or are just happier renting.  Those investors are up on the facts that average rents in Las Vegas are rising – being driven up by families displaced by foreclosure and deciding to rent, families still nervous enough about what’s going on with the economy that they want to hold off a bit longer, and families that just aren’t in a position to purchase because of their credit – those are the investors that are going to come in with their 20% or more down (depending on whether they need it to cash flow positive or negative) and buy up those $90/sq. foot properties in Las Vegas and rent them out. 

So why should a buyer buy now…because pretty soon it’s going to be too late.  If we let our buyers (or prospective buyers in that grocery store line you’re just itching to get out of) wait until they see it on CNN or read about it in the paper, it’s too late, it’s already turned -  because the media, God bless ‘em won’t print it until they have proof…in this case.   What’s proof for them?  Don’t know…in Las Vegas it’s clear that home sales are up, you just have to look at the numbers.  Regardless, once the TV Stations start reporting that it may be time to buy and the papers’ headlines start reading “It’s Safe, Buy Now”…our buyers sadly to their dismay will have already missed out on the best opportunities in Las Vegas Real Estate.

So, how’s the market?  Remember…BIG SMILE, tilt your head and nod, deep breath (don’t read the cue card) and say… “Wow, the market really is changing!  I’ve had to totally change the way I market my real estate here in Las Vegas, but I’ve never seen a more opportunistic market in Southern Nevada.  There are GREAT (shake your head in wonder and amazement) opportunities for both buyers AND sellers here in the Vegas Valley.  Tell me, when are you thinking of making your next real estate move?”